Columnist reflects the specter of losing his landline

By DENNIS MCCARTHY, Los Angeles Daily News

PUBLISHED: February 16, 2024 at 4:33 p.m. | UPDATED: February 16, 2024 at 4:34 p.m.

When they came for my typewriter and replaced it with a word processor, I grumbled but said nothing.

When they took away my vinyl LPs and replaced them with CDs, I begrudgingly put my Sinatra albums in storage and bought his discs.

When bookstores began closing, I built more shelves in my home and started my own bookstore.

Now, AT&T wants to take away my landline, and I say enough, already! Keep your hands off Ma Bell.

Her rotary phones were our lifelines — our memories of when you could stay in touch with the world with a phone, a newspaper and Walter Cronkite.

Today, I’m paying AT&T and Verizon nearly $400 a month to stay in touch, and I don’t have a clue of what’s going on.

In case you missed it, AT&T wants out of the old copper wire business that delivers landline access to around 25% of the households in California that still have landlines and a cell phone. It drops to around 15% with landlines only.

With the speed and technology AT&T possesses, you’d think they’d have texted me with the news, but they chose good, old, reliable snail mail to let me know. How’s that for a shot of irony?

It’s asking the California Public Utilities Commission for a release from its obligation to provide landline phone service in a large portion if its service territory in the state. My portion.

If approved, AT&T will give us land liners six months before it cuts the copper wires and we have to move to a private, unregulated carrier to keep our landline. If no alternative voice services are available, it will hang on until there are.

Not so fast, though. I kind of like the government keeping an eye on my phone bills. It keeps an eye on everything else for me.

I still have an old rotary phone I keep at the end of my desk for personal therapy. The number’s University 6-3230.

Whenever I’m feeling down or stressed out, I stick my forefinger in one of the 10 holes — digits 1 through 9, and zero — on the rotary dial, and give her a whirl, cradling the receiver between my chin and shoulder, like I used to.

That familiar clicking noise when you turn the rotary dial is a glass of chocolate milk and Oreo cookies to me. I’m back in the old neighborhood calling my high school buddies and old girlfriends in my mind.

Ma Bell hung from our kitchen wall and sat on a side table in the living room in the 1950s when two-thirds of American households had at least one rotary phone, thanks to that old copper wiring it now wants to cut.

Ma couldn’t fit in our pocket or do all the things smart phones can do now, but somehow we made do.

Calendars told us what day it was and watches told us the time. Newspapers, TV and radio news kept us in the loop.

Ma couldn’t check our messages or text our friends for lunch, but she gave us great reception and that’s all we were asking for. She never died in the middle of a call.

By the 1970s, push buttons began replacing rotary dials, and that therapeutic clicking sound was gone forever. By the 80s, most rotary phones were being phased out as Ma Bell sang her swan song in 1984.

Today, when my cell phone rings in my house, it’s a mad dash to the window in my den where I get the only good reception in the place and don’t lose the call.

When my landline rings, I take my time walking over to answer it. It never loses a call.

Before the California Public Utilities Commission makes a decision in April on AT&T’s request, it’s asking for public comments.

Comments may be posted on a CPUC link: tinyurl.com/yvp6fb7n

Also, the California Public Utilities Commission is holding two in-person public forms — Feb. 22 in Ukiah, and March 14 in Indio.

One virtual meeting to be held at 2 and 6 p.m. March 19. Information about these meetings and other information on the issue on the CPUC page here: tinyurl.com/yx9sv9zw

For more information on the issue of AT&T’s request to be relieved of its “Carrier of Last Resort” obligations in certain areas of California go online to: https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/attcolr

Or, better yet, give them a call on your landline at 866-849-8390.

For Ma Bell.

Why all the Rain in a La Niña winter?

The forecast in October by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, indicated the odds were stacked against the Golden State: a rare third year of La Niña was expected. And California had already recorded its three driest years in the historical record.

The center’s seasonal forecast for December, January and February said there were equal chances of a dry or wet season in Northern California. But for Southern California, the agency reported there was a 33% to 50% chance of below-normal precipitation.

Every California state water agency and every local water agency were preparing for another winter of drought.

Then the surprise started at the beginning of December 2022. Rain storm after rain storm hit Southen California.

How could that happen when this season was a predicted La Niña winter?

The meteorologists (climate scientists) provide us with an exclamation. One meteorologist who has warned against putting too many eggs in the La Niña basket is Jan Null, a former lead forecaster for the National Weather Service. In late 2020, as La Niña was developing, he tweeted of the phenomenon: “What does it mean for California and U.S. rainfall? Almost anything!”

So while La Niña and El Niño do factor into Southern California weather, another phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation can affect whether storms hit. And instead of being forecast months in advance, they can be predicted only weeks ahead of time.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation — or MJO — is separate from La Niña and El Niño. It’s another way of predicting rain and it provides an excuse for incorrect forecasting.

1997-1998 was a year when the El Niño was accurately predicted (48.3 inches) and that started my collection of rain at my home. What I learned is that the average amount to rain is not a guide to how much rain will fall in any given year. Last year the total rain was just of 6 inches. This year the rainy season is only half completed and the rain received is approaching 16 inches.

Aston Martin Executive Says Electric Cars Aren’t Viable

Finally at least one auto executive agrees with me!

Aston Martin Creative Officer Marek Reichman had some interesting things to say about electric cars and the future of the auto industry lately. In an interview with Drive, the automotive executive opined that electrification is “not the answer” for a zero-emissions future. Normally, such concerns are just dismissed by EV fanboys as “anti-progress” or “technophobia” but Reichman and his comments aren’t so easily dismissed.

Instead of completely writing off EVs, Reichman views them as a bridge to something that’s actually viable. In the interview he pointed out some of the obvious limits of electrification, such as ridiculously long charge times (anything above 5 minutes counts as too long) and the rare nature of minerals used to manufacture batteries. Considering millions of cars are made every year and EVs constitute a small drop in the bucket, he has a point.

Robots are coming. A quarter US workers at risk!

As reported in USA Today one man is sitting “alone atop a tractor with a specialized mechanical attachment” that now performs the work of 30 people.

The Los Angeles Daily News reported “Members of the longshoremen and warehouse workers union picketed outside a meeting of the L.A. Board of Harbor Commissioners Thursday morning, Jan. 24, protesting the approval of a permit that will allow a major terminal operator to increase automation at the Port of Los Angeles.”

According to a new Brookings Institution report one fourth of all jobs in this country are at risk due to automation.

Without a job what will those people who lack the capacity to learn complex job functions do? This will most likely be a world wide problem. We as a nation will not let them starve. Most likely more people will be on a welfare program.

This won’t happen in 2019 but the structure of our society will be changing before this century is over.

Is there a march to autonomous cars?

My guess is there will be autonomous trucks and self driving Uber cars but the autos that most of us drive will still require operation by the owner. There are at least two reasons.

1) There is a question of liability. Who is responsible when accidents occur?

2) Many of us like to drive our cars. We like to be in control. It is the fun of accelerating, speeding, and for many we still like to shift the gears.

I predict the consequence will be cars with an abundance of safety features. Many of them are on some but not all 2018 vehicles.
Look at the 2018 Toyota Camry and Honda Accord

-Pre-Collision System with Pedestrian Detection

If the system determines that a collision is likely and you do not brake in time to prevent an accident the system will apply the brakes to slow the car.

-Lane Departure Alert and Assist (LDW and LKA)
The system will warn you of a departure by issuing a beeping noise and will make minor correction to keep your car centered in your lane.

-Automatic High Beams

The car will turn on high beams when there the area is dark and there are no oncoming lights

-Adaptive Cruise Control

You have set your cruise control at 65 mph. The traffic slows to a lower speed. The system slows the car to an appropriate speed and subsequently increases the speed when traffic resumes to a faster speed.

-Blind Spot Detection
Blinking lights on outside rear view mirrors and inside mirrors to aid in knowing there is someone or something that could cause an accident

-Rear cross-traffic alert
A beeping noise and flashing warnings on interior screen

I have an early 2018 Camry that includes most of these features. The Adaptive Cruise Control that they call Radar Cruise Control is my favorite feature. All of these safety features should be reason enough to buy a new car rather than spending more money on an old clunker.

Self-driving Car Timeline for 11 top Automakers

As I drive a 2001 Nissan Maxima that has gone about 118,000 miles and is still a smooth operating car with dirty upholstery and cruise control that has stopped functioning, I believe it is time for something new.

Aren’t self driving cars about to be the next big thing in just a year or two?

I found the following summary of when this is likely to happen. Abridged article from venturebeat.com dated June 4, 2017

Should I wait another few years? After all the car still runs quite well.

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A company by company examination of public investments by leading car makers and statements from their top executives makes it clear that most car companies are betting self-driving technology is inevitable, and they’re all jumping in with investment and initiatives.

Defining “self-driving” by level

Level 1 automation: some small steering or acceleration tasks are performed by the car without human intervention, but everything else is fully under human control

Level 2 automation: like advance cruise control or original autopilot systems on some Tesla vehicles, the car can automatically take safety actions but the driver needs to stay alert at the wheel

Level 3 automation: still requires a human driver, but the human is able to hand some “safety-critical functions” off to the vehicle under certain traffic or environmental conditions. This poses some potential dangers as the major tasks of driving are transferred to or from the car itself, which is why some car companies (Ford included) are interested in jumping directly to level 4

Level 4 automation: a car that can drive itself almost all the time without any human input but might be programmed not to drive in unmapped areas or during severe weather. This is a car you could sleep in.

Level 5 automation: full automation in all conditions

GM: Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018

Unlike other big car makers, GM has not laid out a specific timeline for its self-driving cars, but the company has made it clear it’s moving aggressively in that direction. In December, GM CEO Marry Barra wrote, “We expect to be the first high-volume auto manufacturer to build fully autonomous vehicles in a mass-production assembly plant.” The focus will be on ride-sharing, rather than the individual buyer.

Ford: Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021

Ford Motor CEO Mark Fields told CNBC that Ford plans to have a “Level 4 vehicle in 2021, no gas pedal, no steering wheel, and the passenger will never need to take control of the vehicle in a predefined area.” Ford actually plans to skip right over Level 3 automation and go straight to Level 4. In the company’s tests, chief technology officer Raj Nair found that Level 3 automation would lead to engineers dozing off and not being situationally ready to take over when called on. CEO Mark Fields claims that Ford will have cars with no gas pedal and no steering wheel driving people around in select cities by 2021.

Honda: Self-driving on the highway by 2020

At the end of last year, Honda announced it was in discussions with Waymo, an independent company of Alphabet, to include Waymo self-driving technology in Honda’s vehicles.

Toyota: Self-driving on the highway by 2020

Toyota has been one of the most skeptical car companies when it comes to autonomous vehicles, but in 2015 it made a big investment to catch up. Toyota is investing $1 billion over five years in the Toyota Research Institute to develop robotics and AI technology. The company hopes to launch products based on its Highway Teammate programs in 2020, which would also be just in time for the Tokyo Olympics.

Renault-Nissan: 2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions, 2025 for truly driverless cars

Renault-Nissan is counting on its new partnership with Microsoft to help advance the company’s autonomous car efforts. Renault-Nissan plans to release 10 different self-driving cars by 2020.

Volvo: Self-driving on the highway by 2021

Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson said in an interview, “It’s our ambition to have a car that can drive fully autonomously on the highway by 2021.” He envisions that full autopilot would be a highly enticing option on a premium vehicle and will initially be priced at $10,000.

Hyundai: Highway by 2020, urban driving by 2030

Hyundai is working on self-driving vehicles but with more of a focus on affordability. In an announcement, Hyundai claims it is “developing its own autonomous vehicle operating system with the goal of using a lot less computing power. This will result in a low-cost platform, which can be installed in future Hyundai models the average consumer can afford.”

Daimler: Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s

Daimler announced this month a high-profile development agreement with Bosch, one of the largest parts suppliers. The goal is to bring both Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles to urban environments “by the beginning of the next decade.” This announcement came less than a month after Bosch announced its own collaboration with chip maker Nvidia to develop self-driving systems.

Fiat-Chrysler: CEO expects there to be some self driving vehicles on the road by 2021

Fiat-Chrysler also teamed up with Waymo last year to test some self-driving Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans.

BMW: Fully self-driving vehicles possible by 2021

Last year, BMW announced a high-profile collaboration with Intel and Mobileye to develop autonomous cars. Officially, the goal is to get “highly and fully automated driving into series production by 2021.”

Tesla: End of 2017

As a smaller startup car maker, Tesla has always focused on pushing the edge of technology. Last year, Tesla began making sure all its cars had the hardware needed for full self-driving capabilities, even before the software/data was ready. Tesla constantly updates its car’s software to improve safety.

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I have no car payments now and the car still runs quite well. Maybe some new tires and I will ask the mechanic what is the cost of fixing the cruise control.

What’s Wrong with California?

To answer the title question: Nothing!

The talk at some discussion groups that I attend revolves around the argument that California and especially Los Angeles is on the verge of collapse due to high taxes, high public debt, and a significant loss of private enterprises moving to other states. That perception is not in keeping with reality.

For the most part Californians accept the multi-ethnic makeup of the society. Thus we find large populations of Asians and Hispanics throughout the state. The Los Angeles LGBT Center is one of the largest and most experienced providers of LGBT health and mental healthcare, supported by a research team working to advance the care and treatment of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people.

California alone as a nation would economically be the 6th largest economy in the world. The five ahead of us are the U.S., China, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that California’s GDP was $2.5 trillion in 2015, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier.

California is the largest producer of Pima cotton in the United States. The California cotton industry provides more than 20,000 jobs in the state and generates revenues in excess of $3.5 billion annually.

California is largest producer of fresh vegetables in the United States says the US Department of Agriculture. California strawberries are found in the markets of Toronto Canada.

Industry Week lists the 500 largest U.S. companies each year. Last year California surged ahead of Texas, 64 companies to 55. By revenue, the biggest manufacturers in California together contributed $881 billion to the state’s coffers, while the biggest in Texas contributed $847 billion. There is not one other state that employs over 1 million people in manufacturing. Texas at 750,000 is in second place. This is US Census data.

40% of all imports and exports of the U.S.A. are moved through the Los Angeles/Long Beach harbor facilities. This figure does not include goods that are shipped by air cargo.

Speaking of air traffic, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) is the third busiest in the United States. That makes Los Angeles a major tourist destination. Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Hollywood, and the amusement parks draw millions of people and that means thousands of jobs.

San Francisco and San Diego are major tourist destinations for the entire world. Last year we stayed at the Fisherman’s Wharf Sheraton Hotel. The desk informed me that their primary of guests comes from other countries.

Los Angeles is a world leader in architecture. The Los Angeles Times this past Sunday (May 21, 2017) published a catalogue of 186 pages showing the works of major architect in this city. Titled DesignLA, it pictured the work of those talented people who include Frank Gehry.

As to education, California has some of the most highly regarded universities in the world. UCLA, USC, UC Berkley, Stanford, and CSUN are just the top of an outstanding educational system that draw thousands of students from around the world.

Silicon Valley and San Francisco are the heart of high tech for the entire world. Facebook, Google, Apple, Tesla are the four most famous of those companies but there are many others as well.

Los Angeles is still home to important aerospace companies including JPL, Rocketdyne, and Space X.

Los Angeles is the entertainment capital of the world. All the major movie studios are based in metropolitan Los Angeles. All television networks have large studios in Los Angeles.

New Jersey has the highest effective property tax rate at 2.38% and is followed closely by Illinois (2.32%), New Hampshire (2.15%), and Connecticut (1.98%). California is happily in 34th place with an effective rate of .81%. My source: https://taxfoundation.org/

California gasoline tax will be the highest in the nation thanks to the latest increase in that tax that will take effect November 1, 2017. This is clearly a serious mistake.

California state government bonds are rated AA- by both Fitch and Standard and Poor’s, Aa3 by Moody’s.

I have not even discussed the weather that is the most obvious reason there was a mass migration to California after WW2 and is still a major drawing point for so many in the rest of the United States. We moved from Philadelphia where you can rely on rain if you plan a picnic in the park and that is in the summer. Winters can best be described as miserable at best.

This is not actress Scarlett Johansson

A 42-year-old product and graphic designer in Hong Kong spent a year and a half and more than $50,000 to build a female robot that’s meant to resemble a Hollywood actress whom he doesn’t want to name. (It’s Scarlett Johansson.) The crop-topped humanoid responds to a set of verbal commands and makes facial expressions.

Ricky Ma built the full-size robot, dubbed “Mark 1,” from scratch on his balcony, thus fulfilling a childhood dream, according to Reuters. “During this process, a lot of people would say things like, ‘Are you stupid? This takes a lot of money. Do you even know how to do it? It’s really hard,’” Ma said.

Have you seen the television program Humans? It is an UK series all about robots that appear to be human. It can be seen in the USA on AMC.

After overcoming challenges like burnt-out electric motors and his inexperience with electromechanics and programming, Ma has created Mark 1, which can move its limbs, turn its head, bow, smirk, and wink. It can also respond to a set of commands with responses or movements.

Evolution of American Industry

Valued at nearly $20 trillion, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world. Maintaining a competitive edge necessitates remaining diversified and dynamic. While this means that some U.S. industries thrive, others inevitably decline or are rendered obsolete.

As certain industries fade, so do hundreds of thousands of American jobs. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed employment figures from 2006 to 2015 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to determine the 25 fastest dying industries. Employment in each industry on this list declined by at least 43%, and in the top two by at least 80%.

At least one of three broad factors is behind the decline in each of the fastest dying industries. The first factor is cost reduction. Cheaper labor abroad has caused many American companies to outsource manufacturing operations. In China, for example, the minimum monthly wage in the garment industry is less than $150 a month. Perhaps not surprisingly, the bulk of clothing Americans import was made in China.

Click here to see America’s 25 dying industries.

Click here to see America’s 25 thriving industries.

In addition to outsourcing, robotic automation in U.S. factories have hurt employment in manufacturing. The sector has shed nearly 2 million jobs in the past decade, a 12.8% decline. Of the 25 fastest dying industries, 10 are in the manufacturing sector, and seven of those are related to clothing and other textiles.

The second cause for massive employment declines in certain industries is the wide adoption and exponential growth of new technologies. Online streaming services and on-demand programming are largely responsible for the 61% employment decline in DVD and video tape manufacturing and the 89% decline in the video rental industry. Similarly, the proliferation of cellphones and smartphones has greatly reduced employment in both telephone manufacturing and photofinishing, industries where employment has declined by 51% and 60%, respectively.

Finally, broad macroeconomic conditions have also contributed to lower employment in many industries. Most notably, within the last 10 years, the subprime mortgage crisis and resulting recession have contributed to a considerable drag on construction. Since 2006, new home construction has declined by 51%. Over the same time period, the broad construction sector has shed over a million jobs, or 15.3% of total employment. The land subdivision and framing industries were hit especially hard, with employment declining by 57% and 55%, respectively.

To identify the dying industries, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed employment growth from 2006 through last year for 704 U.S. industries in the fourth level of detail in The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. All data, including the number of establishments within each industry, average weekly and annual wages, as well as breakouts of these data over government, private, and local levels were retrieved from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The BLS tracks industry employment by tallying the number of workers in establishments whose primary sources of revenue fall within a given industry. As a result, a given establishment along with all of its employees may be reclassified depending on business decisions and market performance. For the finance and insurance industry, where the primary source of revenue for a fund, trust, or financial vehicle can change from a single trading decision, industry employee counts may not be comparable from one year to the next. To help ensure that 10-year employment changes reflected natural growth, all industries related to the management of funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles were excluded.

This is not the kind of data Donald Trump wants to see. He, along with millions of people who have lost their jobs, does not want to face the realities of a world economy. Instead of working to retain outdated technologies the US government should be spending its time training the population in technologies of the 21st century. We have the money to change but we lack the will.