Posted by: coastcontact | August 5, 2020

Joe Biden will win the U.S. Presidency in 2020

 

Joe Biden will win the U.S. presidency, according to history professor Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted U.S. elections for 40 years.

Allan Lichtman, the ‘Nostradamus’ who has accurately predicted U.S. elections for 40 years, sees President Joe Biden in his crystal ball.

This CNBC article should warm the hearts of every Democrat upset every loyal Republican.

  • Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden
  • Lichtman’s prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the “Keys to the White House,” that have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.
  • “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman said in an op-ed video for The New York Times.

The historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 – including President Donald Trump‘s win in 2016 – has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, revealed his prediction in an op-ed video for The New York Times published Wednesday.

Lichtman’s predictive method – which puts him squarely in the minority of analysts who were right in calling Trump’s win – largely ignores the detailed cross-tab polling analyses and swing state bean counting that are often prioritized in modern political punditry.

“The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.”

Polls are “snapshots in time,” Lichtman said. “None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.”

Lichtman’s prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the “Keys to the White House,” which have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.

The keys are presented as true-false statements, framed to favor a win for the incumbent party if true. But if six or more of the statements are false, the challenger – in this case, Biden – is predicted to win the election.

Lichtman’s verdict? “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”

Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh pushed back on that prediction in a statement to CNBC.

“This is an election like no other in history and the choice couldn’t be more clear – between President Trump’s established record of accomplishment for all Americans and Joe Biden’s 47 years of failure and acquiescence to the extreme left,” Murtaugh said. “American voters will decide this election, not academics or professors.”

The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

The model favors Biden on seven of the 13 prompts. They touch on issues such as which party has a mandate – Republicans lost House seats in the 2018 midterms – and the short-term and long-term economy under Trump.

“The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession,” Lichtman said in the video.

Despite his impressive track record, Lichtman’s simple-seeming model has its skeptics. Nate Silver, the writer and analyst at FiveThirtyEight who was famously correct in predicting every state outcome in the 2012 election, wrote in 2011 that Lichtman’s results “should be taken with a grain of salt.”

Lichtman himself offers a note of caution in his video for the Times. “There are forces at play outside the keys,” he said, such as voter suppression and potential Russian election meddling.

Here’s where Trump and Biden stand in Lichtman’s model, along with Lichtman’s responses from the video:

  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.True.“No Republicans challenged Trump.”
  3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election.True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”
  4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challengeTrue. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”
  5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”
  6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”
  7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy.True. “Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”
  8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.False.“As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”
  10. Foreign or Military Failure:The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”
  11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.False.“While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”
  12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic.False“Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”
  13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”
Posted by: coastcontact | August 2, 2020

“The Greatest Generation”

This is one of the best WWII videos you will ever see!  It brought a tear to my eye, along with a reaffirmation of the debt that we owe to “The Greatest Generation”.

I don’t even know where to begin.

The economy is in taters thanks to the coronavirus and President Trump, who is trailing badly in polling of the race for the White House, suggested on Thursday that the Nov. 3 general election be delayed “until people can properly, securely and safely vote.”

This logic could mean we would not have an election for many months and possibly many years.

The president does not have the authority to move the date of a federal election. And Mr. Trump’s other claim on Thursday, that widespread mail-in voting would make the election “inaccurate and fraudulent,” is false.

The Democratic Party could lodge the same claims of “inaccurate and fraudulent” results if Joe Biden lost the election.

The nation has such a complicated patchwork of voting regulations, with some states allowing early and absentee voting; some permitting voting by mail or same-day voter registration; others requiring certain kinds of identification for voters; and many states doing few or none of those things.  Even before this year, five states — Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington — regularly conducted their elections almost entirely by mail and there have been few cases of fraud.

Donald Trump will do everything he can to remain in office for a second term.

There will be dirty tricks and Trump will use lies and fear to convince the public that Joe Biden will destroy America.

Once again Donald Trump promotes hydroxychloroquine cure for COVID-19. Then he doubles down on fringe theories promoting the views of a doctor Stella Immanuel who has previously attracted ridicule for claiming that alien DNA is included in medical treatments and that gynecological problems can be caused by people having sex with demons in their dreams.

Conservative columnist George F. Will writes “Biden’s election will end national nightmare.”

Posted by: coastcontact | July 28, 2020

Americans are more Cautious Then You Thought

2000 Chevrolet Montecarlo

According to CNBC, a cable finance news channel, 25% of cars in the U.S. are at least sixteen years old as vehicle age hits record high.

On average, 1 in 4 cars and trucks you pass are at least 16 years old, according to new analysis of what Americans are driving. With the economy struggling due to Covid-19, prompting companies to lay off millions of Americans, the age of vehicles in the U.S. is likely to rise. It may even climb at a faster rate, according to IHS Markit the highly respected survey company that provided the data.

As someone who believes in driving a car until it is ready for the junk yard I was delighted to learn that I am not alone.

Of course we all want a new car.  We might even shop for a new car.  Then we hear what the monthly payment will be and that stops us from proceeding with the purchase.

It is the same thing when it comes to the purchase of any high priced item.  The picture on the old TV is still good so unless the new television has some new features we can’t live without, we turn to our family members and say “What we have does the job.  Let’s wait until black Friday and we’ll make it a family Christmas gift.”

Despite all of these efforts to keep our expenses under control and avoid using our credit card, the Average US Credit Card Debt is at $15,983.

Sadly many of us have been laid off as a result of the virus epidemic and are now using our credit card(s) to buy our everyday needs.

Is personal bankruptcies going to grow?  Putting food on the table is a priority.

Posted by: coastcontact | July 26, 2020

Can’t You do anything right?

As retired Material Manager I can tell you that you can’t make everyone happy. Deliver the goods to one or two people on time and another three or four are unhappy including your boss.  This T-shirt now being offered on Facebook gave me a laugh.  Any old bosses of mine reading this should laugh too! 

Posted by: coastcontact | July 23, 2020

Have we all gone completely mad?

Are the clever, humorous marketing labels given to ethnic products at Trader Joe’s to be denied?

“Trader Ming’s”, “Trader Jose’s” and “Trader Giotto’s” are all meant to be amusing.

Instead of being racist, these ethnic names draw attention to the fact that many popular, beloved foods in America originated in other countries, thus paying tribute to their country of origin and highlighting the fact that immigrants have contributed to the enrichment and expansion of our culinary repertoire and gustatory pleasure. In truth, American cuisine is a “melting pot,” or smorgasbord, of foods from all over the world.

Are these titles any more ethnic or offensive than Polish sausage, English muffins or German chocolate cake, to name a few? Or will there be another demand to also change these names?

It’s all about political correctness.

Theodore Roosevelt-with conservationist John Muir at Glacier-Point in 1903

Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR all made mistakes but they were the guiding lights that made the country great. John Muir did impact the way we treat the environment.  Elon Musk has lots of problems but he also pushed the electric car market into prominence. 

Try focusing on that.

Posted by: coastcontact | July 19, 2020

Be Afraid, Be Very Very Afraid

As Michael Smerconish on CNN pointed out on his Saturday July 18, 2020 program, Hillary Clinton led in almost all the polls at this point in the 2016 election campaign.  That is why the Democrats should not believe this race is over.

Trump will not go graciously and concede if he loses in the November election. And as he did in 2016, Trump declined to guarantee that he would accept the election outcome, saying it was too soon to make that commitment on today’s Fox News Sunday program. “I have to see,” he told interviewer Chris Wallace. “I’m not going to just say ‘yes.’ I’m not going to say ‘no,’ and I didn’t last time either.”

Repeating a contention he has often made in recent weeks, the president said he believed that mail-in voting would “rig the election.” Critics have said Trump is trying to delegitimize the vote in advance, fearing a loss, especially if the pandemic means that balloting by mail is more widely used than usual.

“The American people will decide this election,” the Biden campaign said in a statement. “And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”

If Donald Trump is re-elected he will do everything he can to tear up the Constitution by blocking the press and claiming that elections that do not favor him are fraudulent and ignoring the law. That will end the great experiment.

We will be ruled by King Donald the First.

Posted by: coastcontact | July 16, 2020

Painting Lipstick on a Pig

To put “lipstick on a pig” is a rhetorical expression, used to convey the message that making superficial or cosmetic changes is a futile attempt to disguise the true nature of a product or person.

That is the job of Donald Trump’s campaign manager. Trump Replaced Brad Parscale as Campaign Manager, Elevating Bill Stepien.  Both men are loyal Republican Party operatives with many years of campaign management experience.

However, Stepien will be confronted with the same issue that challenged Parscale.  Trump thinks he is smarter than everyone else and he knows how to run his campaign.

A Washington Post article by Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Robert Costa summarizes the Trump campaign dilemma.
The Trump administration so far has no clear national plan to combat the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 135,000 in the United States. The president has continued to defend the Confederate flag — a symbol of slavery and racism to many Americans — and, in the wake of national protests over the death of an unarmed black man in police custody in Minneapolis, played an actively divisive role, trafficking in racist and other offensive statements.

That leaves Stepien with only one task.  Make Joe Biden appear so bad that Americans will decide that no matter how bad Trump is, Biden will be worse.  As a smart campaign manager Stepien will do everything he can to make the president look good.  His challenge will be difficult since Trump has painted himself a victim of a media led war against him.  Trump repeatedly veers from his planned presentations as he did just a few days ago when he held a press conference that was supposed to be about China.

Since Stepien has just stepped into the job yesterday, July 15, we don’t know how he will accomplish his task.  It will be difficult because most people already know Biden’s life history both in politics and his personal life.

Painting lipstick on Donald Trump will not make him pretty because he won’t behave and he is a pig.

Posted by: coastcontact | July 16, 2020

African Elephant

African elephant and calf in Maasai Mara Reserve, Kenya

African elephant and calf in Maasai Mara Reserve, Kenya

From Bing

If you encounter a herd of African bush elephants roaming the savanna take heed: The one in charge is likely the family’s matriarch. And it is best to get out of her 7-foot, 3-ton way. Herds, or family units, are made up of the matriarch and related females. When calves are born, they’re raised in a cooperative manner by the mother with the help of other young female elephants called allomothers.

The African bush elephant has the largest body and biggest brain of any land mammal. Scientists think the elephant’s complex brain structure is a good indicator of its intelligence—not just because of the brain’s size, but the fact that elephants in both the wild and captivity have exhibited complex and emotional behaviors, all signs of a highly intelligent species.

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