Posted by: coastcontact | July 30, 2015

When Everything Was So Great!! ??

From Dutchman a HuffPost community moderator on 7-29-2015                                   

This is for the “everything was great when Republicans were president” crowd.

Here is my updated (as of market close last Friday) analysis of the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 returns.

Source data is available from Standard and Poors (www.standardandpoors.com) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics ( href=”http://www.bea.gov“>www.bea.gov)

Peak to Valley loss for the S&P 500 from October, 2007 through January, 2009: -50.9%. Who was president then?

Cumulative return to the S&P 500 since February, 2009: +111%
And then there’s this: Rank of the best performing presidenti­­al administra­­tion for the annualized return of the S&P 500 “under their watch”:

Clinton: 14.26%

Eisenhower : 13.38%

Obama: 13.15%

Kennedy: 11.10%

Bush I: 11.01%

Truman: 9.99%

Reagan: 9.51%

Roosevelt: 8.67%

Johnson: 7.16%

Carter: 1.20%

Nixon/Ford : −2.16%

Bush II: −5.18%

Hoover: −17.33%

Amazing! The president with the 3rd best annualized real return of the S&P 500 “under his watch” since the CRSP records begin in 1926 is OBAMA!!!!!  And he did much better than the GOP hero, Mr. Reagan did.

More importantly, in aggregate and individual­­ly, Republican presidents are TERRIBLE for the S&P 500.

Annualized, real return of the S&P 500 since 1926 under Democratic presidenci­­es: 9.57%

Annualized, real return of the S&P 500 since 1926 under Republican presidenci­­es: 3.85%

Moreover, 8 of the 10 WORST YEARS for the S&P 500 occurred under Republican Presidents .

The worst years are:

1931: -43.35% (Hoover)
2008: -37.00% (Bush II)
1937: -35.02% (Roosevelt )
1974: -26.45% (Nixon)
1930: -24.0% (Hoover)
2002: -22.1% (Bush II)
1973: -14.67% (Nixon)
2001: -11.87% (Bush II)
1941: -11.58% (Roosevelt )
1957: -10.79% (Eisenhowe­­r).

And then there’s this:  the ONLY presidents to ever see the S&P 500 lower after they left office than when they came in were Republicans.

Facts. You gotta love them. Unless you’re a conservative.

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Responses

  1. They and their followers will tell you that it’s just a liberal lie. Lol

  2. I don’t believe party affiliations or the position in right/left dichotomies indicate the probable success or failure of a prospective presidency without taking into account other factors. There are so many other external historical influences impossible to anticipate at the time of an election. The US government doesn’t rule the rest of the world, neither other countries nor things like climate change, and must react to events we don’t control. Some individuals are up to these challenges, others less ready or able, and that doesn’t correlate specifically to either right or left. Then there is the influence of how cooperative the relationships with the other branches of government are during each presidency, a factor more influenced by regional culture than who the president is.

    I expect your percentages are accurate, but the facts are too small a subset of all facts available to draw conclusions from. The S&P 500 isn’t even the whole stock market, let alone the whole economy. It seems like a very narrow way of estimating presidential success or failure. The USA has had many mixed result presidencies – where domestic and foreign policy may progress during a period of economic stagnancy or vice-versa. How do you even judge success or failure in these cases? Is it only a matter of what things are more important to an individual?

    I have political preferences like most, but about half the eleven presidential elections I’ve voted in have been “lesser of two evils” contests. I rarely get enough of what I want in a candidate, and liberal vs conservative isn’t as high a qualifying factor for me as (perceived) honesty and ethical consistency. Choosing between someone who seems shady and guarded but espouses positions I agree with, and an opponent whose policies I disagree with but who seems more authentic personally is a hard choice. And if it comes down to Mrs. Clinton vs Mr. Bush, that’s the sort of choice we will get. I truly hope there will be some other viable candidate to vote for than either of those two.


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